The Hairy Chart, Interactive
Project
Data Visualization
The federal funds target rate since 1982, with the paths expected for it at each past date, from four free sources.
Curtis Kephart
Oct 17, 2026
US federal funds target rate, with expected rate paths
Read more about hairy plots, and how this one was made, in the blog post The Hairy Chart.
Federal Funds Target Rate. The rate the Federal Open Market Committee announces it is aiming for. A single number until December 2008, a quarter-point range from then on; the line marks the middle of the range.
Treasury Forward Curve. What the Treasury bond market implies about future short rates, backed out daily by Federal Reserve Board staff from a smooth curve fitted across the whole maturity spectrum. A forward rate is the expected future short rate plus a term premium, so it is not a pure expectation. One hair per FOMC meeting, since 1994.
Options-Implied (SOFR). What options traders are collectively betting, as a full probability distribution over where the overnight rate will average in a future three-month window. Each hair is the mean for each upcoming window, as of one day. Daily since March 2023.
FOMC Median Projection. Four times a year each of the Federal Reserve’s senior policymakers writes down where they think the federal funds rate should be at the end of each of the next few years. This is the middle answer, published since September 2015.
Professional Forecasters. Every quarter the Philadelphia Fed asks a few dozen professional forecasters where the three-month Treasury bill rate will be over the next five quarters, and publishes the median. The bill normally sits a little below fed funds, so a forecast of the bill rate works as a rough forecast of the policy rate that runs slightly low.
Recessions. US recessions, shaded from the business cycle peak to the trough, using the turning points determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).
Each hair starts on the target line at the date its forecast was made, and runs from there to the source’s first forecast.
The R notebook and the Python notebook walk through how to access the data and build each series, with each publisher’s own description and links to the source data.